Executive Summary
The Durham Region real estate market has experienced remarkable transformation over the past five years, evolving from a red-hot seller's market in 2021-2022 to a more balanced environment in 2024-2025. This comprehensive analysis examines key market indicators including sales volumes, pricing trends, inventory levels, and market timing metrics to provide both buyers and sellers with crucial insights for making informed decisions.
Our analysis reveals that while the market has cooled significantly from the pandemic peaks, it has stabilized at sustainable levels with improved affordability and buyer choice. The data shows a market in transition, offering opportunities for both first-time buyers and seasoned investors who understand the current dynamics.
Market Inventory & Listings Analysis
Active Listings Surge Indicates Market Rebalancing
The Durham Region housing market has witnessed a dramatic shift in inventory levels over the past four years. Active listings have increased substantially from the historic lows of 2021, when inventory bottomed out at just 152 units in December, to a robust 2,798 units in May 2025 – representing an 18-fold increase.
This inventory expansion tells a compelling story of market normalization. The severe shortage of 2021, which drove bidding wars and rapid price appreciation, has given way to a more balanced market where buyers have genuine choice. The steady climb in active listings from 2022 onwards reflects both increased seller confidence and realistic pricing expectations.
Key Insight: The current inventory level of 2,798 units represents the highest May inventory since our data tracking began, providing buyers with unprecedented selection and negotiating power compared to recent years.
New Listings: Consistent Supply Meets Evolving Demand
New listings data reveals interesting seasonal patterns and year-over-year trends. May 2025 recorded 2,461 new listings, representing a significant increase from the 2,082 new listings in May 2024. This 18% year-over-year growth in new supply suggests sellers are becoming more active, potentially motivated by stabilizing prices and improved market conditions.
The seasonal pattern remains consistent across years, with spring months (March-May) typically seeing the highest volume of new listings as sellers capitalize on traditional buying season demand. However, the magnitude of these spring surges has varied significantly, with 2021 showing extreme volatility and recent years demonstrating more predictable patterns.
Sales Volume Trends & Market Activity
Sales Stabilization After Pandemic Volatility
Sales volume analysis reveals the Durham market's journey from pandemic-driven extremes to current stability. May 2025 recorded 850 sales, representing a healthy increase from the 907 sales in May 2024, suggesting sustained buyer demand despite higher inventory levels.
The data shows three distinct market phases: the pandemic boom of 2021 with peak sales of 2,077 in March, the dramatic correction of 2022-2023 when sales plummeted to as low as 380 units, and the current stabilization period beginning in 2024. This stabilization indicates a maturing market where sustainable sales levels support both buyer and seller needs.
Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio: Market Balance Indicator
The sales-to-new-listings ratio serves as a crucial market balance indicator. May 2025's ratio of 34.5% indicates a buyer's market, where supply exceeds immediate demand. This represents a significant shift from 2021's ratios that frequently exceeded 80-90%, indicating intense seller's market conditions.
A balanced market typically shows ratios between 40-60%. The current 34.5% ratio suggests buyers have negotiating power and time to make informed decisions, while sellers need to price competitively and present well-prepared properties to attract offers.
Pricing Analysis & Affordability Trends
Price Stabilization Creates Opportunity
Average sale prices in Durham Region have achieved remarkable stability after the volatility of 2021-2022. May 2025's average of $905,702 represents a modest decline from the peak of $1,228,990 in February 2022, but demonstrates sustained value compared to pre-pandemic levels.
This pricing trajectory reflects a market correction that has improved affordability without creating a crash. The 26% decline from peak prices has restored purchasing power for many buyers while maintaining substantial equity gains for existing homeowners who purchased before 2021.
Affordability Alert: Current prices represent a $323,288 reduction from peak levels, equivalent to approximately $1,600+ monthly savings on mortgage payments for typical buyers.
Sale Price to Listing Price Ratios: Negotiation Reality
The sale-price-to-listing-price ratio has normalized to 100% in May 2025, indicating that homes are selling at or very close to their listing prices. This contrasts sharply with the 127% ratio seen in January 2022, when buyers routinely paid well above asking prices in bidding wars.
The current environment allows buyers to negotiate on price, request repairs, and include conditions in their offers – luxuries that were impossible during the pandemic boom. Sellers must price realistically and be prepared for negotiation rather than expecting multiple offers above asking price.
Market Timing & Days on Market Analysis
Homes Taking Longer to Sell: What It Means
Days on market have increased significantly from the ultra-fast sales of 2021, when homes often sold within a week. May 2025 shows properties averaging 18 days on market, compared to just 8 days in May 2021. While this represents slower sales, it indicates a more normal, sustainable market pace.
The increase in market time benefits both buyers and sellers in different ways. Buyers gain time to conduct proper due diligence, arrange financing, and make informed decisions without pressure. Sellers benefit from more serious, qualified buyers who have had time to research and prepare their offers thoughtfully.
Months of Inventory: Supply and Demand Balance
Perhaps the most telling indicator of market shift is the months of inventory metric. May 2025 recorded 3.29 months of inventory, indicating a buyer's market where supply exceeds immediate demand. This contrasts dramatically with 2021's lows of 0.23 months, when inventory shortages drove rapid price appreciation.
Generally, 6+ months indicates a buyer's market, 3-6 months suggests balance, and under 3 months favors sellers. At 3.29 months, Durham Region sits in the transitional zone between balanced and buyer-favored conditions, providing opportunities for patient, well-prepared purchasers.
Market Outlook & Strategic Recommendations
The Durham Region real estate market has successfully transitioned from unsustainable pandemic extremes to a more balanced, healthy state. Current conditions favor informed participants who understand market dynamics and act strategically.
For Buyers: The current market offers the best conditions in years, with substantial inventory, negotiating power, and stabilized prices. Take advantage of reduced competition and the ability to include conditions in offers.
For Sellers: Success requires realistic pricing, professional presentation, and patience. The days of multiple offers above asking are gone, but qualified buyers are active and ready to purchase well-priced, well-presented homes.
Investment Perspective: The market correction has created opportunities for long-term investors. Current prices offer better value than peak levels while maintaining strong fundamentals for future appreciation.
The data suggests Durham Region real estate has found a sustainable equilibrium that supports both buyer and seller needs while maintaining the region's long-term growth potential. Market participants who adapt to these new dynamics will find success in this evolved landscape.
