Housing Shift: Navigating April Pause – Buyers & Sellers Take Note!

Canadian Housing Market Pauses in April 2025 Amid Shifting Conditions

The Canadian housing market showed signs of a pause in its recent slump during April 2025, with national home sales remaining virtually unchanged from March. However, activity remains subdued compared to the previous year, and prices continue to see modest declines. This analysis, based on data released by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), delves into the key trends observed in April. Key Highlights for April 2025:

• National Home Sales:
  • Month-over-month: -0.1% (seasonally adjusted)
  • Year-over-year: -9.8% (actual, not seasonally adjusted), with 44,300 units sold compared to 49,135 in April 2024.
• Prices:
  • MLS® Home Price Index (HPI):
    • Month-over-month: -1.2%
    • Year-over-year: -3.6%
  • National Average Sale Price: $679,866
    • Year-over-year: -3.9% (actual, not seasonally adjusted)
• Listings and Inventory:
  • New Listings (month-over-month): -1.0%
  • Total Active Listings: 183,000 (up +14.3% year-over-year, but still below the long-term average of approximately 201,000 for this time of year).
• Market Balance:
  • Sales-to-New Listings Ratio (SNLR): 46.8% (up slightly from 46.4% in March). This indicates a market approaching balanced conditions, though still at the lower end of the 45%-65% range typically associated with balance. The long-term average for the SNLR is 54.9%.
  • Months of Inventory: 5.1 months, which is in line with the long-term average of five months. A seller’s market is typically below 3.6 months, and a buyer’s market above 6.4 months.

Detailed Analysis:

The April 2025 data suggests a stabilization in sales activity after several months of decline. Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior Economist, noted that the market is returning to the “quiet markets we’ve experienced since 2022,” with factors like “tariff uncertainty taking the place of high interest rates in keeping buyers on the sidelines.”

While sales activity paused its descent on a month-over-month basis, the year-over-year comparison still shows a significant drop, indicating that the market is considerably cooler than in April 2024. Price pressures continue, with both the MLS® HPI and the national average sale price registering year-over-year declines.

The month-over-month decrease in the HPI suggests that price adjustments are ongoing. The number of newly listed properties dipped slightly in April compared to March. However, the total number of homes available for sale has increased notably from a year ago, offering more choice to potential buyers.

Despite this increase, total inventory remains below long-term averages. The sales-to-new listings ratio moving slightly up to 46.8% and 5.1 months of inventory suggest the national market is largely balanced, albeit with regional variations. Regional Variations: The national figures mask significant regional differences. CREA reports indicate:

• Ontario and British Columbia: These more expensive markets are generally experiencing larger price pullbacks and higher inventory levels, with sales potentially decreasing more significantly.
• Maritimes, Quebec, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan (Prairies, East Coast): These traditionally more affordable regions are seeing some price resilience or even increases, along with tighter inventory conditions.

Valérie Paquin, CREA Chair, emphasized this divergence: “The number of homes for sale across Canada has almost returned to normal, but that is the result of higher inventories in B.C. and Ontario, and tight inventories everywhere else.” Visual Summary: The following charts illustrate some of the key trends: Total Active Listings vs. Long-Term Average (April 2025) This chart compares the total number of homes available for sale at the end of April 2025 against the typical long-term average for that time of year. It also notes the year-over-year change in active listings. This chart compares the total number of homes available for sale at the end of April 2025 (183,000, up 14.3% year-over-year) against the typical long-term average for that time of year (approximately 201,000). It shows that while listings have increased from last year, they still haven’t reached the historical average for April. Sales-to-New Listings Ratio (SNLR) – April 2025 This chart shows the SNLR for April 2025, comparing it to the long-term average and the thresholds for different market conditions (buyer’s, balanced, seller’s).

This chart shows the Sales-to-New Listings Ratio (SNLR) for April 2025 at 46.8%. It compares this to the long-term average SNLR of 54.9% and highlights the range typically considered a “balanced market” (45% to 65%). The current SNLR sits at the lower end of this balanced range, indicating that while the market isn’t strongly favouring buyers or sellers, it’s leaning slightly towards conditions that could offer buyers more leverage than if the ratio were higher.

Analysis:

April 2025 data points to a stabilization in sales activity following several months of declining figures. According to CREA’s Senior Economist, Shaun Cathcart, “the 2025 Canadian housing story would best be described as a return to the quiet markets we’ve experienced since 2022, with tariff uncertainty taking the place of high interest rates in keeping buyers on the sidelines.”

This suggests that while the sharp decline in sales may have paused, underlying caution persists among market participants. The year-over-year decrease in home sales by nearly 10% underscores that the market remains significantly cooler than in the spring of 2024. This slowdown in activity is accompanied by ongoing price adjustments.

Both the MLS® HPI and the national average sale price saw year-over-year decreases, with the HPI also declining month-over-month, indicating continued downward pressure on home values. On the supply side, new listings saw a slight dip from March to April. However, the total number of homes available for sale has risen substantially compared to the previous year, giving prospective buyers more options.

Despite this increase, overall inventory levels have not yet reached their long-term averages for this time of year. The national market, as indicated by the SNLR and months of inventory, appears to be in a state of balance. However, this national picture is an aggregation of varied local conditions. Regional Variations: The Canadian housing market is not monolithic, and significant regional differences persist:

• Ontario and British Columbia: These provinces, particularly their more expensive urban centers, are generally experiencing more pronounced price pullbacks. Inventory levels are higher, and sales activity has seen more significant declines compared to other parts of the country.
• Prairie Provinces (Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba) and Atlantic Canada (Maritimes, Newfoundland and Labrador), and Quebec: In contrast, many markets in these regions are demonstrating more resilience. Some are even witnessing modest price growth and continue to experience tighter inventory conditions relative to demand.

CREA Chair Valérie Paquin highlighted this disparity, stating, “The number of homes for sale across Canada has almost returned to normal, but that is the result of higher inventories in B.C. and Ontario, and tight inventories everywhere else.” This underscores the importance of understanding local market dynamics when considering buying or selling property. Visual Summary of Key Market Indicators: The following charts provide a visual representation of some of the key changes in the Canadian housing market for April 2025: Canadian Housing Market – Year-over-Year Changes (April 2025 vs April 2024) This chart illustrates the percentage change in actual home sales, the MLS® Home Price Index, and the national average sale price compared to April of the previous year. All key metrics show a decline, highlighting the cooling trend. Canadian Housing Market – Month-over-Month Changes (April 2025 vs March 2025)

This chart displays the percentage change in seasonally adjusted national home sales, new listings, and the MLS® Home Price Index compared to the preceding month. It shows a near flatline in sales, a slight decrease in new listings, and a continued modest decline in the HPI. In conclusion, the Canadian housing market in April 2025 was characterized by a pause in the recent sales slump, ongoing price moderation, and a nationally balanced market that masks significant regional variations. Factors such as economic uncertainty, including trade tariff concerns, continue to influence buyer and seller behavior.

Recommendation for a Seller Considering Listing Their Home:

The decision to sell your home is significant, and the current market presents a nuanced landscape. While national prices have seen some moderation and sales activity, though stabilizing month-over-month, remains below last year’s levels, there are compelling reasons to consider listing, especially if your circumstances align. Why This Might Be a Good Time for You to Sell:

1. Stabilizing Market Activity: After a period of decline, national sales activity showed signs of pausing its slump in April. This could indicate that buyers who were on the sidelines are beginning to re-engage, potentially creating a window of opportunity before any further significant market shifts.
2. Inventory Levels Offer a Mixed Picture: While total active listings are up year-over-year (meaning more competition than last year), they still remain below the long-term average for this time of year in many areas. A well-priced and well-presented home can still capture significant attention.
3. Regional Strengths Persist: If your property is located in markets like the Prairies, Quebec, or parts of Atlantic Canada, you might find conditions are still relatively strong with resilient pricing and tighter inventories. Even in markets like Ontario and BC that have seen more significant price adjustments, unique properties in desirable locations can still attract motivated buyers.
4. Capture Current Price Levels: While prices have dipped from their peak, they are still substantial in many regions compared to historical levels. If you’re concerned about further price erosion, selling now could allow you to lock in your property’s current value. Waiting doesn’t guarantee a better outcome, especially if national price trends continue their modest decline.
5. Motivated Buyers Are Still Active: Serious buyers are always in the market. Those active now are likely navigating current conditions with clear intentions, potentially leading to smoother transactions if you connect with the right one.

To maximize your success, it’s crucial to:

• Price Strategically: Overpricing in this market can lead to your home sitting longer. Work closely with a local real estate professional to set a competitive and realistic price based on the very latest comparable sales.
• Ensure Your Home Shines: With more choice for buyers than last year, presentation matters more than ever. Invest in staging, decluttering, and addressing any necessary repairs.
• Be Flexible: Understand that negotiation might be more common. Being open to reasonable offers and conditions can facilitate a successful sale.

If your personal and financial goals align with a move, listing now allows you to capitalize on the current buyer interest and potentially transition to your next property with more clarity than in a more volatile market.

Recommendation for a Buyer Considering Entering the Market:

For prospective homebuyers, the April 2025 market data reveals an environment that offers several advantages compared to the frenetic conditions of the recent past. If you’re financially prepared, this could be an opportune time to make your move. Why This Might Be a Good Time for You to Buy:

1. Increased Choice and Less Frenzy: The 14.3% year-over-year increase in total active listings means you have more properties to choose from. With national sales down 9.8% compared to last April, there’s generally less competition for each home, reducing the likelihood of intense bidding wars.
2. Price Moderation Offers Better Value: Both the MLS® Home Price Index and the national average sale price have declined year-over-year (by -3.6% and -3.9% respectively). This softening of prices can make homeownership more accessible and potentially offer better long-term value.
3. More Balanced Market Conditions: Key indicators like the Sales-to-New Listings Ratio (46.8%) and Months of Inventory (5.1 months) point towards a more balanced national market. This environment typically affords buyers more time for due diligence, less pressure to make rushed decisions, and potentially more room for negotiation on price and conditions.
4. Favourable Conditions in Certain Regions: If you are looking in markets like Ontario or British Columbia, you may find more significant price pullbacks and a greater willingness from sellers to negotiate, creating specific buying opportunities.
5. Opportunity for Long-Term Investment: Housing is a long-term investment. Entering the market during a period of price stabilization or modest decline can be advantageous for buyers with a long-term horizon, as you’re potentially buying at a more sustainable price point.
6. Stable Interest Rate Environment (Relatively Speaking): While interest rates remain a key consideration, the acute uncertainty around rapid rate hikes has somewhat subsided. This allows for more predictable mortgage planning. Shaun Cathcart of CREA noted “tariff uncertainty taking the place of high interest rates in keeping buyers on the sidelines,” suggesting some buyers might be adapting to the current rate environment.

To make the most of the current market, consider the following:

• Get Pre-Approved for a Mortgage: Know your budget definitively. This will strengthen your negotiating position.
• Work with an Experienced Buyer’s Agent: They can help you identify suitable properties, understand local micro-market conditions, and guide you through the negotiation process.
• Don’t Try to Perfectly Time the Bottom: It’s nearly impossible to buy at the absolute lowest point. Focus on finding a home that meets your needs and budget in a market that is offering more favorable conditions than seen in quite some time.

If you have a stable financial situation and a long-term perspective, the current market conditions provide a window of opportunity to purchase a home with more choice, less pressure, and potentially better value.

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